Gnistan 2-1 Inter Turku — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.8
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
35%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
22%
3.35
6+ Goals
8%
12.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 28% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.36
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
13.15
X/1
11%
6.34
X/2
11%
4.99
X/X
14%
4.8
2/1
10%
31.5
2/2
18%
3.12
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+2.6pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.6pp
35%
Away Win
41%
-6.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.9pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Inter Turku EU Bookmakers 45%
+1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +12%
0.28/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.40
-100% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
278 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
4.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.4
20.0 Crosses 17.5
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Inter Turku
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
5 Total Shots 9
4 Corners 3
07.02.2024 Inter Turku Inter Turku 1-2 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
2-1
AWAY Inter Turku
1.20 xG 1.21
31% Ball Possession 69%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 10
149 Passes 425
64% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 43
9 Crosses 36
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs Inter Turku
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan nicked a narrow win over Inter Turku 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day Gnistan made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Gnistan had 31% of the ball to Inter Turku's 69%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 1.20 to 1.21.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Inter Turku?

Gnistan 2-1 Inter Turku in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs Inter Turku?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 35%, draw 30%, Inter Turku 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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