Lens 1-0 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Mar 2025

Lens
1-0 HT 0-0
Rennes
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒23:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
36%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.75
Over 2.5
47%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.93
2-3 Goals
40%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
16.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.76
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
12%
4.64
X/2 EV+ ✗
18%
7.45
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
5.73
2/X
7%
14.0
Value flag · X/2 at 7.45 — our 18% vs market 9.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.8pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+10.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
53%
-0.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
47%
+0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lens EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -12%
1.62/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.56
-19% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
391 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
23.4 Crosses 14.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lens
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Rennes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.96 xG 1.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
408 Passes 397
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2024 Rennes Rennes 1-1 HT 1-0 Lens Lens FR1
12.05.2024 Rennes Rennes 1-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
20.08.2023 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
01.04.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
27.08.2022 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
08.01.2022 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lens
1-0
AWAY Rennes
0.76 xG 0.59
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
336 Passes 427
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lens vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens nicked a narrow win over Rennes 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Lens made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Lens had 45% of the ball to Rennes's 55%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.76 to 0.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Lens and 0.67 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Lens vs Rennes?

Lens 1-0 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lens vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Lens 38%, draw 26%, Rennes 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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