Rennes 1-1 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 21 Sep 2024

Rennes
1-1 HT 1-0
Lens
📅21/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Rennes vs Lens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.28
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.59
6+ Goals
10%
14.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.28 — our 26% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.29
1/2
10%
31.5
1/X
11%
13.15
X/1
14%
5.04
X/2
11%
6.05
X/X
11%
4.6
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
9%
4.24
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.1pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.2pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Lens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 36%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -3%
1.72/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.53
+40% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
322 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 83%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
17.0 Crosses 18.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.8

Rennes vs Lens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Lens
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 1.22
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
437 Passes 392
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.05.2024 Rennes Rennes 1-1 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
20.08.2023 Lens Lens 1-1 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
01.04.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-1 Lens Lens FR1
27.08.2022 Lens Lens 2-1 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
08.01.2022 Lens Lens 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
08.08.2021 Rennes Rennes 1-1 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FR1

Rennes 1-1 Lens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
1-1
AWAY Lens
1.37 xG 0.56
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
231 Passes 383
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 21
9 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes and Lens couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Rennes at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Rennes had 40% of the ball to Lens's 60%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.37 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lens led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rennes and 1.17 for Lens.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Lens?

Rennes 1-1 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 21/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rennes 42%, draw 28%, Lens 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rennes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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