Gornik Zabrze 4-0 Motor Lublin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
26%
3.07
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.65
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
10%
12.9
X/1
13%
4.76
X/2
11%
7.55
X/X
6%
5.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.0
2/2
13%
5.4
2/X
10%
13.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.0 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.4pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gornik Zabrze EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 30%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.72/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.21
+15% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -34% / +91%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
350 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 74%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.4
18.1 Crosses 22.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gornik Zabrze
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Motor Lublin
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
500 Passes 366
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
13.09.2024 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-0 HT 0-0 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gornik Zabrze
4-0
AWAY Motor Lublin
2.09 xG 1.76
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 11
388 Passes 402
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gornik Zabrze swept aside Motor Lublin 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gornik Zabrze as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Gornik Zabrze had 48% of the ball to Motor Lublin's 52%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.09 to 1.76.

What was the final score of Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin?

Gornik Zabrze 4-0 Motor Lublin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gornik Zabrze vs Motor Lublin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gornik Zabrze win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Gornik Zabrze 45%, draw 26%, Motor Lublin 29%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gornik Zabrze), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gornik Zabrze) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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