Metz 3-4 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Mar 2026

Metz
3 - 4 HT 2 - 3
Toulouse
📅15/03/2026 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Metz vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
49%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.68
Over
45%
1.98
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.66
2-3
48%
1.73
4-5
19%
4.08
6+
4%
19.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.08
1/2
3%
27.0
1/X
5%
14.85
X/1
9%
7.49
X/2
18%
4.39
X/X
18%
4.26
2/1
2%
34.0
2/2
28%
2.68
2/X
5%
13.8
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome.

Metz v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Metz The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse The Market 50%
Weak Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Weak
0.90 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.64
1.56 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 0.98
Weak Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Strong
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 80%
17 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2

Metz vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Toulouse
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.83 xG 1.71
45% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
306 Passes 395
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 30
17 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.10.2025 Toulouse Toulouse 4-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
14.01.2024 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
01.10.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 3-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
28.09.2019 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
03.03.2018 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.11.2017 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1

Metz 3-4 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
3 - 4
AWAY Toulouse
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
442 Passes 433
89% Pass Accuracy 87%
REVIEW Metz vs Toulouse
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toulouse edged past Metz 4-3 on the road. Half-time: 2-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The one blemish: under 2.5 goals (55%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Metz had 50% of the ball to Toulouse's 50%, shots finished 17-19.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Metz and 1.83 for Toulouse.

Metz vs Toulouse Result & Final Score

Metz 3 - 4 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Metz vs Toulouse Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Metz 23%, draw 28%, Toulouse 49%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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