Toulouse 4-0 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
58%
1.53
Draw
21%
3.94
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under
45%
2.0
Over
55%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
25%
3.66
2-3
36%
1.81
4-5
27%
3.15
6+
12%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.66 — our 25% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.94
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.55
X/1
20%
4.05
X/2
9%
11.3
X/X
8%
5.79
2/1
7%
21.8
2/2
7%
9.16
2/X
7%
17.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Toulouse win — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
58%
Home Win
61%
-3.3pp
21%
Draw
22%
-0.8pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
46%
-1.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
54%
+1.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.2pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse The Market 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz The Market 21%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +0%
1.73/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.88
-23% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
403 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
22.1 Crosses 15.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Metz
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.55 xG 0.97
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
393 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
14.01.2024 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
01.10.2023 Toulouse Toulouse 3-0 HT 2-0 Metz Metz FR1
28.09.2019 Metz Metz 2-2 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
03.03.2018 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
18.11.2017 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR1
14.05.2017 Metz Metz 1-1 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
4-0
AWAY Metz
2.54 xG 0.10
36% Ball Possession 64%
16 Total Shots 2
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
272 Passes 545
84% Pass Accuracy 90%
34 Box Touches 6
15 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse swept aside Metz 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toulouse as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Toulouse had 36% of the ball to Metz's 64%, shots finished 16-2, expected goals 2.54 to 0.10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toulouse had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toulouse and 0.67 for Metz.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Metz?

Toulouse 4-0 Metz in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 58%, draw 21%, Metz 21%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toulouse), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toulouse) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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