Lorient 3-3 Brest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 19 Oct 2025

📅19/10/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
21%
3.18
Away
40%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
1.78
Over Pick
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1
26%
3.0
2-3
41%
1.75
4-5
23%
3.68
6+
10%
15.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.98
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.85
X/2
12%
5.65
X/X
9%
4.36
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
19%
3.76
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 1/2 at 29.0 — our 9% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.9pp
21%
Draw
28%
-6.7pp
40%
Away Win
36%
+3.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lorient The Market 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Brest The Market 40%
-4% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +10%
1.33/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.17
+1% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +33%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
19.5 Crosses 20.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lorient
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Brest
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.23 xG 1.02
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 Passes 358
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.07.2024 Brest Brest 1-1 HT 1-0 Lorient Lorient HAZ
31.03.2024 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
20.12.2023 Brest Brest 4-0 HT 4-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
07.05.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-1 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
09.10.2022 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient FR1
27.02.2022 Brest Brest 0-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lorient
3-3
AWAY Brest
1.20 xG 1.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
321 Passes 340
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lorient vs Brest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lorient and Brest couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 21% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lorient had 50% of the ball to Brest's 50%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.20 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lorient had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lorient and 1.33 for Brest.

What was the final score of Lorient vs Brest?

Lorient 3-3 Brest in the France - Ligue 1 on 19/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lorient vs Brest?

Before kick-off our model rated an Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lorient 39%, draw 21%, Brest 40%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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