Brest 1-1 Lorient — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.78
Over
41%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.81
No
57%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
33%
3.02
2-3
39%
1.78
4-5
20%
3.87
6+
8%
17.1
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.02 — our 33% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.83
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.85
X/1
15%
4.42
X/2
14%
6.93
X/X
11%
4.51
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
13%
5.29
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.9pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-8.5pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brest The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Lorient The Market 31%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -46% / +20%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
365 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brest
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Lorient
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.28 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
371 Passes 334
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.03.2024 Lorient Lorient 0-1 HT 0-0 Brest Brest FR1
20.12.2023 Brest Brest 4-0 HT 4-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
07.05.2023 Lorient Lorient 2-1 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
09.10.2022 Brest Brest 1-2 HT 1-1 Lorient Lorient FR1
27.02.2022 Brest Brest 0-1 HT 0-0 Lorient Lorient FR1
07.11.2021 Lorient Lorient 1-2 HT 1-0 Brest Brest FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brest
1-1
AWAY Lorient
48% Ball Possession 52%
7 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Brest vs Lorient
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brest and Lorient couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Brest had 48% of the ball to Lorient's 52%, shots finished 7-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Brest and 1.00 for Lorient.

What was the final score of Brest vs Lorient?

Brest 1-1 Lorient in the Friendlies on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brest vs Lorient?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brest win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brest 40%, draw 27%, Lorient 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Brest), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brest) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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