Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction — Model Probabilities
Monarcas Morelia v Tepatitlán de Morelos — Team-Based Signals
Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Monarcas Morelia 3-2 Tepatitlán de Morelos — Actual Match Statistics
Monarcas Morelia edged past Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. With 5 goals, entertainment was never the problem.
Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) promised a tight game; Monarcas Morelia found the edge the numbers couldn't.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 46% for over 2.5, 52% on both teams scoring. If anything the market was more convinced: the over-2.5 price stood at 1.91, roughly 52%.
Under the surface, Monarcas Morelia had 59% of the ball to Tepatitlán de Morelos's 41%, shots finished 17-11.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.83 for Tepatitlán de Morelos.
Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Result & Final Score
Monarcas Morelia 3 - 2 Tepatitlán de Morelos in the Mexico - Primera A on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Monarcas Morelia vs Tepatitlán de Morelos Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 35%, draw 29%, Tepatitlán de Morelos 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos), Under 2.5 went the other way.