Celta Vigo 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 May 2024

Celta Vigo
2-1 HT 0-1
Athletic Bilbao
📅15/05/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.68
Over 2.5
42%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.15
6+ Goals
10%
20.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 32% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.19
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
17%
4.82
X/2
10%
6.48
X/X
13%
4.06
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
17%
4.85
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.0pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.7pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 32%
-15% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -10%
1.42/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.32
-20% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
361 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 71%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
20.9 Crosses 20.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 1.43
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
378 Passes 309
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.11.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-3 HT 2-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
20.05.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-1 HT 1-0 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
29.01.2023 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
17.04.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-2 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
28.08.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-1 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
14.03.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Celta Vigo 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
2-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.72 xG 0.24
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
426 Passes 356
82% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 9
12 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo nicked a narrow win over Athletic Bilbao 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and on the day Celta Vigo made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 53% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 47%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.72 to 0.24.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.17 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?

Celta Vigo 2-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 39%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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