Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.0
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.0 — our 35% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.96
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.4
X/1
20%
3.54
X/2
6%
11.6
X/X
13%
5.06
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
9.99
2/X
7%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.9pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.3pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.6pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Granada EU Bookmakers 19%
-24% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -26%
1.65/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.61
-20% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
373 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
28.2 Crosses 17.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Granada
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.73 xG 1.26
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
305 Passes 267
75% Pass Accuracy 72%
21 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.08.2023 Granada Granada 0-2 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
03.04.2022 Granada Granada 2-2 HT 0-2 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
29.08.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4-0 HT 3-0 Granada Granada İS1
07.05.2018 Granada Granada 0-2 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2
02.12.2017 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-0 HT 0-0 Granada Granada İS2
19.03.2016 Granada Granada 2-2 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
2-1
AWAY Granada
2.47 xG 1.18
31% Ball Possession 69%
18 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 6
125 Passes 377
60% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 19
11 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Granada
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano nicked a narrow win over Granada 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rayo Vallecano as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 31% of the ball to Granada's 69%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 2.47 to 1.18 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rayo Vallecano's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.67 for Granada.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Granada?

Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Granada?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 52%, draw 26%, Granada 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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