Coritiba 1-0 Guarani FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
20%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.6
Over 2.5
38%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
37%
2.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.77
6+ Goals
8%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.49 — our 37% vs market 33.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-6.4pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
20%
Away Win
18%
+2.4pp
62%
Under 2.5
59%
+3.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
41%
-3.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.7pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Coritiba EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Guarani FC EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
1.62/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.15
+0% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +9%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
320 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
23.2 Crosses 18.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Coritiba
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Guarani FC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.06 xG 1.40
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
308 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
26.06.2021 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
09.10.2019 Coritiba Coritiba 1-0 HT 1-0 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
12.06.2019 Guarani FC Guarani FC 0-1 HT 0-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
04.11.2018 Coritiba Coritiba 0-2 HT 0-1 Guarani FC Guarani FC BR2
10.07.2018 Guarani FC Guarani FC 2-1 HT 1-1 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Coritiba
1-0
AWAY Guarani FC
0.31 xG 0.40
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
261 Passes 431
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 17
11 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Coritiba vs Guarani FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Coritiba squeezed past Guarani FC 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Coritiba as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

On the day, Coritiba had 39% of the ball to Guarani FC's 61%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 0.31 to 0.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Coritiba had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Coritiba and 0.67 for Guarani FC.

What was the final score of Coritiba vs Guarani FC?

Coritiba 1-0 Guarani FC in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Coritiba vs Guarani FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Coritiba win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Coritiba 50%, draw 30%, Guarani FC 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Coritiba), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Coritiba) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
15 May 2024
01:00 Avai vs CRB Analysis →
01:00 Vila Nova vs Novorizontino Analysis →
03:30 Botafogo SP vs Chapecoense Analysis →