Vila Nova 2-1 Novorizontino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 May 2024

📅15/05/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
29%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
Over 2.5
38%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
5.47
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+2.0pp
30%
Draw
31%
-0.9pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.4pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Novorizontino EU Bookmakers 33%
-7% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / +0%
1.26/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.19
-21% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
15.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
20.7 Crosses 20.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Novorizontino
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.07 xG 0.95
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 6
274 Passes 257
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
14 Box Touches 15
19 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
30.07.2023 Novorizontino Novorizontino 3-1 HT 2-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
15.04.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-1 HT 2-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
31.07.2022 Novorizontino Novorizontino 1-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
13.04.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Novorizontino Novorizontino BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-1
AWAY Novorizontino
1.22 xG 0.68
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
275 Passes 207
74% Pass Accuracy 65%
15 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Novorizontino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova edged past Novorizontino 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vila Nova as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vila Nova had 54% of the ball to Novorizontino's 46%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.22 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Vila Nova and 1.25 for Novorizontino.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?

Vila Nova 2-1 Novorizontino in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Novorizontino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 41%, draw 30%, Novorizontino 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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