Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 15 May 2025

Osasuna
2-0 HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
📅15/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+1.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
42%
Away Win
44%
-1.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.3pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osasuna v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.11/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.04
+12% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +39%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
264 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 82%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
22.4 Crosses 14.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.91 xG 1.70
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
407 Passes 391
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 23
29 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.01.2025 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
19.05.2024 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-4 HT 0-1 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
28.09.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.05.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
29.01.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
19.02.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 0-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
2-0
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.58 xG 1.36
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
222 Passes 488
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 24
11 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna saw off Atletico Madrid 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Osasuna had 35% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 65%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.58 to 1.36 — on chances, Atletico Madrid could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Osasuna and 1.83 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?

Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 29%, draw 29%, Atletico Madrid 42%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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