Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-3 Botev Vratsa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 15 May 2025

📅15/05/2025 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
12%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
54%
-7.5pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.3pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.2pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Botev Vratsa EU Bookmakers 23%
-14% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
1.47/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.43
-10% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
401 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Botev Vratsa
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
01.03.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
18.10.2024 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
31.07.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 4-0 HT 2-0 Botev Vratsa Botev Vratsa BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-3
AWAY Botev Vratsa
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Vratsa saw off Lokomotiv Plovdiv 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 43% of the ball to Botev Vratsa's 57%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 0.00 for Botev Vratsa.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-3 Botev Vratsa in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Botev Vratsa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 46%, draw 29%, Botev Vratsa 25%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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