Tigres UANL 1-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 May 2025

Tigres UANL
1-1 HT 1-1
Toluca
📅15/05/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.64
Over 2.5
54%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.95
No
44%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.58
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.19
6+ Goals
11%
21.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.19 — our 26% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.8
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.55
X/1
21%
4.59
X/2
8%
7.73
X/X
12%
4.12
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
28.5
2/2
15%
6.27
2/X
6%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.5 — our 7% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+3.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
57%
-10.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
43%
+10.9pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.5pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tigres UANL v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 29%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -11%
1.56/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.41
-1% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
329 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 75%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
21.2 Crosses 14.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Tigres UANL vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Toluca
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.17 xG 1.55
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
345 Passes 430
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.02.2025 Toluca Toluca 1-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
07.11.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.03.2024 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
05.10.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-2 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
14.05.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
12.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK

Tigres UANL 1-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
1-1
AWAY Toluca
0.74 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
325 Passes 225
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL and Toluca shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Tigres UANL at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 56% of the ball to Toluca's 44%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.74 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Tigres UANL and 1.67 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Tigres UANL 1-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 15/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 45%, draw 27%, Toluca 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Tigres UANL), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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