Tigres UANL vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tigres UANL v Toluca — Team-Based Signals
Tigres UANL vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
4-1
HT 3-1
Toluca
MEK
3-2
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
3-1
HT 1-0
Toluca
MEK
Tigres UANL 2-1 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics
Tigres UANL edged past Toluca 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Tigres UANL had 44% of the ball to Toluca's 56%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.79 to 1.66.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Tigres UANL and 2.00 for Toluca.
What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Tigres UANL 2-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 07/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 49%, draw 25%, Toluca 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.