Tigres UANL 2-1 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 7 Nov 2024

📅07/11/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.38
Over 2.5
53%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.95
4-5 Goals
26%
2.76
6+ Goals
10%
7.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
53%
-4.1pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.1pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tigres UANL EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +1%
1.57/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.40
+8% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +3%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
411 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 77%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
22.3 Crosses 14.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tigres UANL
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Toluca
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.57 xG 1.29
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
364 Passes 445
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
05.10.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-2 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
14.05.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
12.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.04.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-2 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
08.09.2022 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 3-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tigres UANL
2-1
AWAY Toluca
1.79 xG 1.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
360 Passes 477
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tigres UANL vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tigres UANL edged past Toluca 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tigres UANL as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Tigres UANL had 44% of the ball to Toluca's 56%, shots finished 12-10, expected goals 1.79 to 1.66.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Tigres UANL and 2.00 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Tigres UANL 2-1 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 07/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tigres UANL vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tigres UANL win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Tigres UANL 49%, draw 25%, Toluca 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tigres UANL), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tigres UANL) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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