Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
4-1
HT 3-1
Toluca
MEK
3-2
HT 2-0
Tigres UANL
MEK
Toluca 1-0 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca edged past Tigres UANL 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Toluca had 66% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 34%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.01 to 0.58 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toluca's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Toluca and 2.00 for Tigres UANL.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Tigres UANL?
Toluca 1-0 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Tigres UANL?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Toluca 42%, draw 27%, Tigres UANL 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.