Toluca 1-0 Tigres UANL — Maç Sonucu, İstatistikler ve Maç Analizi — Mexico - Primera, 2 Feb 2025

Toluca LWDLD→
1 - 0 HT 0 - 0
Tigres UANL DWWDW→
📅02/02/2025 · 🕒06:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Also in play: 3-2 · 4-1 — 5% together
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off. · updated 07:51
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
28%
3.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.97
Over
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
YesVIEW
57%
1.63
No
43%
2.12
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.6
2-3
46%
1.77
4-5
24%
3.04
6+
6%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
2%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
3%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
NO PICK no pattern fills on this match today.
VIEW our model view: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a pick.

Toluca v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Toluca The Market 50%
Signal
AWAY Tigres UANL The Market 32%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
1.77 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.27
1.07 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.33
Strong Attack Strength Average
Average Defense Strength Average
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
308 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 82%
25 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Tigres UANL
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.38 xG 1.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
434 Passes 356
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.11.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
03.03.2024 Toluca Toluca 2-1 HT 0-1 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
05.10.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-2 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
14.05.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
12.05.2023 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 4-1 HT 3-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.04.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-2 HT 2-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK

Toluca 1-0 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
1 - 0
AWAY Tigres UANL
2.01 xG 0.58
66% Ball Possession 34%
26 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 7
519 Passes 234
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 8
19 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
REVIEW Toluca vs Tigres UANL
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toluca edged past Tigres UANL 1-0. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The one blemish: both teams to score (57%) never looked like landing.

By the numbers, Toluca had 66% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 34%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 2.01 to 0.58 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toluca's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Toluca and 2.00 for Tigres UANL.

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Result & Final Score

Toluca 1 - 0 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 02/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Toluca 45%, draw 27%, Tigres UANL 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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