Nanjing City 2-1 Qingdao Red Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 15 Jun 2024

📅15/06/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.28
Away
40%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.95
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.96
6+ Goals
7%
18.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.95 — our 31% vs market 28.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.2pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.7pp
40%
Away Win
31%
+8.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nanjing City EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+11% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 74%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
15.2 Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nanjing City
2-1
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions
0.37 xG 0.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
205 Passes 183
72% Pass Accuracy 70%
10 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nanjing City vs Qingdao Red Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nanjing City squeezed past Qingdao Red Lions 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 40% — and on the day Nanjing City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Nanjing City had 51% of the ball to Qingdao Red Lions's 49%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.37 to 0.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured Qingdao Red Lions.

What was the final score of Nanjing City vs Qingdao Red Lions?

Nanjing City 2-1 Qingdao Red Lions in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 15/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nanjing City vs Qingdao Red Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated an Qingdao Red Lions win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Nanjing City 38%, draw 23%, Qingdao Red Lions 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Qingdao Red Lions) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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