Montedio Yamagata 3-4 Vegalta Sendai — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
42%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.66
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
19.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 32% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
9%
X/2
15%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-3.1pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.7pp
42%
Away Win
42%
-0.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.3pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Vegalta Sendai EU Bookmakers 46%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -8%
1.47/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.20
+32% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
259 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.7 Crosses 18.5
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Vegalta Sendai
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.06.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-1 HT 1-1 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
13.04.2024 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 2-0 HT 2-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
01.07.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 4-1 HT 2-0 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
13.05.2023 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 2-1 HT 1-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
25.06.2022 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai 1-1 HT 0-1 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
20.03.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-3 HT 1-1 Vegalta Sendai Vegalta Sendai JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
3-4
AWAY Vegalta Sendai
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
280 Passes 222
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
5 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vegalta Sendai edged past Montedio Yamagata 4-3 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vegalta Sendai as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 55% of the ball to Vegalta Sendai's 45%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vegalta Sendai led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 1.67 for Vegalta Sendai.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai?

Montedio Yamagata 3-4 Vegalta Sendai in the Japan - J2 League on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Vegalta Sendai?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vegalta Sendai win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 27%, draw 32%, Vegalta Sendai 42%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vegalta Sendai) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vegalta Sendai) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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