Sporting Cristal 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 15 Jun 2025

📅15/06/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.34
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
69%
-12.6pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.6pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.7pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Cristal EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 14%
+2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +21%
2.19/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.67
+33% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / +33%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 214 · 69%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
24.9 Crosses 10.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Cristal
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.66 xG 1.12
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
294 Passes 222
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.09.2024 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
16.04.2024 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-3 HT 1-3 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
13.08.2023 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 3-0 HT 2-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
13.03.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 4-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Cristal
3-2
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
2.87 xG 1.02
71% Ball Possession 29%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
406 Passes 115
84% Pass Accuracy 60%
27 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Cristal nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Cristal as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sporting Cristal had 71% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 29%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.87 to 1.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Cristal's control.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.50 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Sporting Cristal 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 56%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Cristal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Cristal) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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