Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sporting Cristal v Deportivo Garcilaso — Team-Based Signals
Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
3-0
HT 2-0
Deportivo Garcilaso
PER
4-4
HT 0-1
Sporting Cristal
PER
Sporting Cristal 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso — Actual Match Statistics
Sporting Cristal nicked a narrow win over Deportivo Garcilaso 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sporting Cristal as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.
On the day, Sporting Cristal had 71% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 29%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 2.87 to 1.02 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Cristal's control.
For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Cristal had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Sporting Cristal and 1.50 for Deportivo Garcilaso.
What was the final score of Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Sporting Cristal 3-2 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 15/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Cristal win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Sporting Cristal 56%, draw 26%, Deportivo Garcilaso 18%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Cristal) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.