Aucas vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Aucas v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Aucas vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Aucas
EKV1
0-2
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
2-2
HT 0-1
Aucas
EKV1
Aucas 1-0 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Aucas nicked a narrow win over El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Aucas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Aucas had 58% of the ball to El Nacional's 42%, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 1.67 to 0.94.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Aucas and 1.67 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Aucas vs El Nacional?
Aucas 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Aucas vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated a Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Aucas 42%, draw 29%, El Nacional 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.