El Nacional vs Aucas Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
El Nacional v Aucas — Team-Based Signals
El Nacional vs Aucas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Aucas
EKV1
0-2
HT 0-1
El Nacional
EKV1
2-2
HT 0-1
Aucas
EKV1
2-0
HT 1-0
El Nacional
EKV1
El Nacional 0-1 Aucas — Actual Match Statistics
Aucas squeezed past El Nacional 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match split (33% / 32% / 35%) promised a tight game; Aucas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, El Nacional had 53% of the ball to Aucas's 47%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 0.75 to 1.56.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for El Nacional and 1.50 for Aucas.
What was the final score of El Nacional vs Aucas?
El Nacional 0-1 Aucas in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Aucas?
Before kick-off our model rated an Aucas win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 33%, draw 32%, Aucas 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aucas), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.