Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Macara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 16 Mar 2025

Independiente Del Valle
1-1 HT 0-1
Macara
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2025

Independiente Del Valle vs Macara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.94
Away
17%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.09
No
56%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
63%
-7.2pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.0pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+2.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.5pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Del Valle v Macara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Macara EU Bookmakers 17%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
1.72/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.47
-5% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
371 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 74%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.4
18.8 Crosses 13.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Independiente Del Valle vs Macara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Macara
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.95 xG 0.89
68% Ball Possession 32%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
456 Passes 183
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.11.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 7-0 HT 6-0 Macara Macara EKV1
26.05.2024 Macara Macara 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.09.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-0 HT 0-0 Macara Macara EKV1
10.05.2022 Macara Macara 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
02.08.2021 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 4-0 HT 2-0 Macara Macara EKV1
28.02.2021 Macara Macara 3-1 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1

Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Macara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-1
AWAY Macara
1.47 xG 0.61
76% Ball Possession 24%
15 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
558 Passes 128
91% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 13
37 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Macara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle and Macara couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. Independiente Del Valle carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 76% of the ball to Macara's 24%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.47 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.50 for Macara.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Macara?

Independiente Del Valle 1-1 Macara in the Ecuador - Premier on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Macara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 56%, draw 27%, Macara 17%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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