Bastia vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bastia v Pau — Team-Based Signals
Bastia vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-4
HT 0-1
Pau
FR2
2-6
HT 1-2
Bastia
FR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Pau
FR2
Bastia 1-1 Pau — Actual Match Statistics
Bastia and Pau shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
This one beat our numbers. Bastia carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Bastia had 44% of the ball to Pau's 56%, shots finished 13-9, expected goals 1.55 to 1.45.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bastia and 1.50 for Pau.
What was the final score of Bastia vs Pau?
Bastia 1-1 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 15/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bastia vs Pau?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bastia 55%, draw 22%, Pau 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.