Bastia 1-1 Pau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 24 Jan 2025

Bastia
1-1 HT 0-0
Pau
📅24/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
France - Ligue 2 – 2024/2025

Bastia vs Pau Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.93
6+ Goals
9%
18.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.62
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
19%
4.35
X/2
7%
7.69
X/X
11%
4.46
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
14%
6.24
2/X
9%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bastia v Pau — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bastia EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Pau EU Bookmakers 28%
-1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +6%
1.61/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.28
-14% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -1%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
387 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.9 Crosses 17.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bastia vs Pau Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bastia
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Pau
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.40 xG 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 Passes 319
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2024 Pau Pau 1-1 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
10.05.2024 Pau Pau 1-2 HT 1-0 Bastia Bastia FR2
26.09.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-4 HT 0-1 Pau Pau FR2
20.05.2023 Pau Pau 2-6 HT 1-2 Bastia Bastia FR2
13.01.2023 Bastia Bastia 1-0 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2
05.02.2022 Bastia Bastia 1-1 HT 0-0 Pau Pau FR2

Bastia 1-1 Pau — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bastia
1-1
AWAY Pau
1.83 xG 0.74
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
372 Passes 180
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
23 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Bastia vs Pau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bastia and Pau couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bastia at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Bastia had 63% of the ball to Pau's 37%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.83 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Bastia and 1.50 for Pau.

What was the final score of Bastia vs Pau?

Bastia 1-1 Pau in the France - Ligue 2 on 24/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bastia vs Pau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bastia win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bastia 47%, draw 27%, Pau 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bastia) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bastia) ✓ Under 2.5
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