Ponte Preta 1-1 Nautico — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Aug 2026

📅15/08/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.5
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
41%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.83
6+ Goals
9%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 30% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
25%
+6.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.3pp
41%
Away Win
48%
-7.1pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ponte Preta EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Nautico EU Bookmakers 52%
-1% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -68% / -68%
1.15/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.56
-18% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -74%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
266 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 79%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
19.8 Crosses 14.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ponte Preta
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nautico
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.27 xG 1.18
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
229 Passes 284
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
05.04.2026 Nautico Nautico 1-0 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
05.11.2022 Nautico Nautico 0-1 HT 0-0 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
21.07.2022 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 1-0 HT 0-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
16.10.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-3 HT 2-1 Nautico Nautico BR2
13.07.2021 Nautico Nautico 1-1 HT 0-1 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta BR2
17.01.2021 Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 2-0 HT 2-0 Nautico Nautico BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ponte Preta
1-1
AWAY Nautico
1.15 xG 2.08
13 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
133 Passes 270
17 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ponte Preta vs Nautico
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponte Preta and Nautico couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Nautico at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.15 to 2.08.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ponte Preta had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Ponte Preta and 0.83 for Nautico.

What was the final score of Ponte Preta vs Nautico?

Ponte Preta 1-1 Nautico in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ponte Preta vs Nautico?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nautico win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ponte Preta 32%, draw 27%, Nautico 41%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nautico) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nautico) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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