Gernika 1-1 Deportivo Alaves II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
25%
3.11
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.54
Over 2.5
49%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.03
No
50%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
16%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+4.7pp
25%
Draw
29%
-3.8pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-1.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
61%
-10.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
39%
+10.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
45%
+4.7pp
50%
BTTS No
55%
-4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gernika EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Alaves II EU Bookmakers 43%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
1.18/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/0.63
+11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +56%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gernika
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Alaves II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
28.01.2024 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 1-2 HT 0-1 Gernika Gernika İS4
17.09.2023 Gernika Gernika 3-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
30.04.2023 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II 0-0 HT 0-0 Gernika Gernika İS4
17.12.2022 Gernika Gernika 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Alaves II Deportivo Alaves II İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gernika
1-1
AWAY Deportivo Alaves II
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gernika vs Deportivo Alaves II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gernika and Deportivo Alaves II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Gernika had 53% of the ball to Deportivo Alaves II's 47%, shots finished 14-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Gernika had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gernika and 0.50 for Deportivo Alaves II.

What was the final score of Gernika vs Deportivo Alaves II?

Gernika 1-1 Deportivo Alaves II in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gernika vs Deportivo Alaves II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo Alaves II win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Gernika 37%, draw 25%, Deportivo Alaves II 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Alaves II) ✓ Under 2.5
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