Salernitana 2-3 Pisa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.8
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
35%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.06
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 30% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.39
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
11%
6.22
X/2
12%
5.18
X/X
12%
4.18
2/1
9%
33.5
2/2
16%
3.38
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+5.1pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.9pp
35%
Away Win
39%
-4.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.2pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Pisa EU Bookmakers 43%
+11% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
1.38/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.13
+44% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +28%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
232 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 79%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
21.8 Crosses 20.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Pisa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 1.14
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
242 Passes 327
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.02.2021 Pisa Pisa 2-2 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
17.10.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 4-1 HT 1-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
20.06.2020 Salernitana Salernitana 1-1 HT 1-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
29.10.2019 Pisa Pisa 2-1 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
01.04.2017 Pisa Pisa 0-1 HT 0-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTB
29.10.2016 Salernitana Salernitana 0-0 HT 0-0 Pisa Pisa İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
2-3
AWAY Pisa
1.43 xG 1.77
71% Ball Possession 29%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 0
584 Passes 210
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
25 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Pisa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pisa nicked a narrow win over Salernitana 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Pisa made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Salernitana had 71% of the ball to Pisa's 29%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.43 to 1.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salernitana had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Salernitana and 1.00 for Pisa.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Pisa?

Salernitana 2-3 Pisa in the Italy - Serie B on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Pisa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Salernitana win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 37%, draw 28%, Pisa 35%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Salernitana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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