Perugia 1-1 Gubbio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.54
Over 2.5
43%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.06
No
56%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.35
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
5.15
6+ Goals
9%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.6pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
61%
-4.0pp
43%
Over 2.5
39%
+4.0pp
44%
BTTS Yes
44%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
56%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Gubbio EU Bookmakers 30%
+17% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -12%
1.69/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.36
+30% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Gubbio
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 6
17.03.2024 Gubbio Gubbio 0-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
12.11.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.03.2021 Gubbio Gubbio 3-2 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
21.11.2020 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
06.08.2017 Perugia Perugia 2-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTK
12.01.2014 Gubbio Gubbio 0-5 HT 0-3 Perugia Perugia İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
1-1
AWAY Gubbio
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Gubbio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia and Gubbio shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Perugia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Perugia had 55% of the ball to Gubbio's 45%, shots finished 7-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Perugia and 0.67 for Gubbio.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Gubbio?

Perugia 1-1 Gubbio in the Italy - Serie C on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Gubbio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Perugia 42%, draw 30%, Gubbio 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Perugia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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