Gubbio 0-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 17 Mar 2024

Gubbio
0-1 HT 0-1
Perugia
📅17/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie C – 2023/2024

Gubbio vs Perugia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
25%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.56
Over 2.5
37%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.96
No
58%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
38%
2.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
4.96
6+ Goals
7%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.42 — our 38% vs market 34.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
38%
+6.1pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
32%
-7.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.0pp
58%
BTTS No
53%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gubbio v Perugia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gubbio EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 36%
+10% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.51/0.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.52
+23% / +73% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9

Gubbio vs Perugia Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gubbio
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Perugia
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Perugia Perugia 1-0 HT 1-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
17.03.2021 Gubbio Gubbio 3-2 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
21.11.2020 Perugia Perugia 0-0 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTC
06.08.2017 Perugia Perugia 2-1 HT 0-0 Gubbio Gubbio İTK
12.01.2014 Gubbio Gubbio 0-5 HT 0-3 Perugia Perugia İTC

Gubbio 0-1 Perugia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gubbio
0-1
AWAY Perugia
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 1
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gubbio vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia edged past Gubbio 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Gubbio at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Gubbio had 63% of the ball to Perugia's 37%, shots finished 14-11.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Perugia led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Gubbio and 2.00 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Gubbio vs Perugia?

Gubbio 0-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 17/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gubbio vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gubbio win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gubbio 44%, draw 30%, Perugia 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gubbio) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gubbio) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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