Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.69
6+ Goals
10%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 30% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.83
1/2
8%
28.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
11%
5.56
X/2
9%
5.37
X/X
15%
4.53
2/1
7%
29.5
2/2
15%
3.65
2/X
10%
13.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
37%
-0.4pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.8pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.9pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 40%
+2% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -6%
1.34/1.37 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.21
-4% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +12%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
332 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses 26.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.81 xG 1.30
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
280 Passes 419
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL3
02.12.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
31.01.2020 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
17.08.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
05.04.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
27.10.2018 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-3
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
363 Passes 318
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arminia Bielefeld saw off Erzgebirge Aue 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 31% / 33% — and on the day Arminia Bielefeld made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 53% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 47%, shots finished 12-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.17 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-3 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - 3rd Division on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 36%, draw 31%, Arminia Bielefeld 33%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Under 2.5
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