Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
36%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.97
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.13
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.77
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
12%
5.88
X/2
13%
5.48
X/X
16%
5.03
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
15%
3.41
2/X
5%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
38%
-2.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.0pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld EU Bookmakers 42%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.36/1.45 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.84
-3% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +48%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.81 xG 1.30
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
303 Passes 403
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
13 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-2 HT 1-2 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
31.01.2020 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 0-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
17.08.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 3-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
05.04.2019 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-1 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
27.10.2018 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 HT 0-0 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld AL2
14.04.2018 Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld 2-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
1-0
AWAY Arminia Bielefeld
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue nicked a narrow win over Arminia Bielefeld 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) promised a tight game; Erzgebirge Aue found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 45% of the ball to Arminia Bielefeld's 55%, shots finished 7-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arminia Bielefeld led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.50 for Arminia Bielefeld.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Erzgebirge Aue 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld in the Germany - 3rd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Arminia Bielefeld?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 37%, draw 27%, Arminia Bielefeld 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL3 More Germany - 3rd Division
4 May 2024
15:00 Ulm 1846 vs Viktoria Köln Analysis →
15:00 Dynamo Dresden vs Verl Analysis →
15:00 1860 München vs Borussia Dortmund II Analysis →
15:00 Freiburg II vs Jahn Regensburg Analysis →
17:30 Sandhausen vs Rot-Weiss Essen Analysis →