1860 München 1-2 Borussia Dortmund II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.82
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.03 — our 27% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.41
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.65
X/1
20%
4.35
X/2
9%
8.21
X/X
9%
5.35
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
10%
5.82
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
51%
-1.8pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.8pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+0.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.2pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME 1860 München EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +10%
1.72/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.50
+0% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 76%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.3 Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME 1860 München
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
03.12.2023 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 3-0 HT 0-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3
26.03.2023 1860 München 1860 München 1-4 HT 0-3 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
01.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-1 HT 0-0 1860 München 1860 München AL3
14.05.2022 1860 München 1860 München 6-3 HT 2-2 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
11.12.2021 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 0-2 HT 0-1 1860 München 1860 München AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME 1860 München
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund II
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH 1860 München vs Borussia Dortmund II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II nicked a narrow win over 1860 München 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was 1860 München at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, 1860 München had 47% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 53%, shots finished 8-16.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for 1860 München and 2.20 for Borussia Dortmund II.

What was the final score of 1860 München vs Borussia Dortmund II?

1860 München 1-2 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for 1860 München vs Borussia Dortmund II?

Before kick-off our model rated a 1860 München win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split 1860 München 49%, draw 25%, Borussia Dortmund II 26%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (1860 München) ✗ BTTS No
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