Operario PR 2-1 Coritiba — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.67
Draw
31%
2.77
Away
27%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
70%
1.38
Over
30%
2.89
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.27
No
65%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1
41%
1.96
2-3
39%
1.86
4-5
13%
6.84
6+
7%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 70%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
34%
+7.9pp
31%
Draw
33%
-1.5pp
27%
Away Win
33%
-6.5pp
70%
Under 2.5
69%
+1.4pp
30%
Over 2.5
31%
-1.4pp
35%
BTTS Yes
40%
-5.4pp
65%
BTTS No
60%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Operario PR EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Coritiba EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -17%
0.94/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.08
-1% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
266 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.6 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Operario PR
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Coritiba
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.42 xG 1.43
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
351 Passes 326
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2024 Coritiba Coritiba 3-0 HT 3-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
26.02.2023 Operario PR Operario PR 3-0 HT 1-0 Coritiba Coritiba BRPR
28.01.2022 Operario PR Operario PR 2-1 HT 1-0 Coritiba Coritiba BRPR1
04.11.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 3-1 HT 0-0 Operario PR Operario PR BR2
26.07.2021 Operario PR Operario PR 1-0 HT 1-0 Coritiba Coritiba BR2
07.04.2021 Coritiba Coritiba 3-2 HT 1-1 Operario PR Operario PR BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Operario PR
2-1
AWAY Coritiba
0.92 xG 0.77
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
376 Passes 170
79% Pass Accuracy 67%
15 Box Touches 12
30 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Operario PR vs Coritiba
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Operario PR nicked a narrow win over Coritiba 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Operario PR as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (70%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Operario PR had 66% of the ball to Coritiba's 34%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.92 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Operario PR and 1.67 for Coritiba.

What was the final score of Operario PR vs Coritiba?

Operario PR 2-1 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Operario PR vs Coritiba?

Before kick-off our model rated a Operario PR win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Operario PR 42%, draw 31%, Coritiba 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Operario PR) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Operario PR) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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