Santos 2-1 America Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.66
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
66%
1.6
Over
34%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.16
No
63%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1
39%
2.49
2-3
40%
1.78
4-5
14%
4.77
6+
7%
27.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.49 — our 39% vs market 33.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 66%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
56%
-7.2pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.3pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+3.9pp
66%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.1pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY America Mineiro EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +1%
1.56/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/0.92
+64% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
23.0 Crosses 16.9
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
2W-0D-4L
AWAY America Mineiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.14 xG 1.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
344 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.05.2024 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-1 Santos Santos BR2
04.09.2023 America Mineiro America Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
30.04.2023 Santos Santos 3-2 HT 2-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
15.08.2022 America Mineiro America Mineiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
24.04.2022 Santos Santos 3-0 HT 1-0 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
23.10.2021 Santos Santos 0-2 HT 0-1 America Mineiro America Mineiro BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
2-1
AWAY America Mineiro
1.40 xG 0.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 3
361 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 13
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Santos vs America Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos squeezed past America Mineiro 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santos had 58% of the ball to America Mineiro's 42%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 1.40 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, America Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Santos and 1.50 for America Mineiro.

What was the final score of Santos vs America Mineiro?

Santos 2-1 America Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie B on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs America Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Santos 49%, draw 29%, America Mineiro 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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