Aguilas Doradas 1-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.51
Over 2.5
42%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
50%
-4.8pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.1pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+5.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-4.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.1pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aguilas Doradas EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 24%
+10% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
1.24/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.17
+8% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 75%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
17.1 Crosses 11.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aguilas Doradas
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.86 xG 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
316 Passes 341
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.03.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 1-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
26.08.2023 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
05.03.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 3-0 HT 1-0 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
23.11.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 0-1 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas KOL
13.11.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
29.08.2022 Aguilas Doradas Aguilas Doradas 3-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aguilas Doradas
1-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.70 xG 1.29
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 10
353 Passes 279
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aguilas Doradas and Independiente Medellin shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Aguilas Doradas at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Aguilas Doradas had 54% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 46%, shots finished 14-21, expected goals 0.70 to 1.29.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Aguilas Doradas and 1.17 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin?

Aguilas Doradas 1-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aguilas Doradas vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aguilas Doradas win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aguilas Doradas 45%, draw 28%, Independiente Medellin 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aguilas Doradas), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aguilas Doradas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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