Porto 2-1 Farense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.16
Draw
17%
6.26
Away
12%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.61
Over 2.5
55%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.29
No
59%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.99
2-3 Goals
40%
2.07
4-5 Goals
24%
2.57
6+ Goals
12%
5.78
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
42%
1.24
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
34.5
X/1
22%
3.37
X/2
4%
34.5
X/X
7%
11.4
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
5%
31.5
2/X
5%
34.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
82%
-10.7pp
17%
Draw
13%
+3.9pp
12%
Away Win
6%
+6.8pp
45%
Under 2.5
35%
+10.7pp
55%
Over 2.5
65%
-10.7pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.7pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Farense EU Bookmakers 8%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.47/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.65/2.73
-2% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +70% / +23%
61% Ball Possession 39%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
468 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 74%
38.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.6
22.1 Crosses 11.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Farense
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.29 xG 1.01
68% Ball Possession 32%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
471 Passes 163
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
38 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2024 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 0-2 Porto Porto POR
20.08.2023 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-1 Farense Farense POR
10.05.2021 Porto Porto 5-1 HT 3-0 Farense Farense POR
25.01.2021 Farense Farense 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
06.04.2002 Farense Farense 0-3 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
30.11.2001 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 2-0 Farense Farense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
2-1
AWAY Farense
4.50 xG 0.91
72% Ball Possession 28%
25 Total Shots 13
12 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 0
378 Passes 115
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
42 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Porto vs Farense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto nicked a narrow win over Farense 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Porto had 72% of the ball to Farense's 28%, shots finished 25-13, expected goals 4.50 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Porto's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Porto and 0.50 for Farense.

What was the final score of Porto vs Farense?

Porto 2-1 Farense in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Farense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Porto 71%, draw 17%, Farense 12%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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