Sporting Braga 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 15 Sep 2024

📅15/09/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.02
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.81
No
47%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.03
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.86
6+ Goals
11%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.92
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
17%
4.49
X/2
10%
6.68
X/X
16%
4.53
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
2/2
12%
5.06
2/X
7%
14.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.8pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.10/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.39
+35% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
325 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
15.5 Crosses 18.9
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 1.42
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
365 Passes 271
81% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.05.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-3 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
06.01.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
28.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.01.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
03.09.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
05.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
0-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.47 xG 0.98
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
368 Passes 347
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes beat Sporting Braga 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Braga at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 52% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 48%, shots finished 6-10, expected goals 0.47 to 0.98.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Sporting Braga 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 43%, draw 28%, Vitoria Guimaraes 28%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting Braga), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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