Vitoria Guimaraes 2-3 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2024

Vitoria Guimaraes
2-3 HT 1-1
Sporting Braga
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.49
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.42
6+ Goals
11%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.49 — our 28% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.48
1/2
5%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1
11%
6.69
X/2
16%
5.01
X/X
12%
4.95
2/1
8%
31.0
2/2
22%
2.98
2/X
6%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.9pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.9pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 48%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +13%
1.25/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.15
+74% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +9%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 80%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
20.3 Crosses 19.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.02 xG 1.20
42% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
268 Passes 394
75% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
28.02.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.01.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-2 HT 0-2 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POK
03.09.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
05.02.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
29.08.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-3 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
2-3
AWAY Sporting Braga
2.81 xG 2.32
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
280 Passes 326
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 47% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 53%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.81 to 2.32 — on chances, Vitoria Guimaraes could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.17 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Braga?

Vitoria Guimaraes 2-3 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 33%, draw 25%, Sporting Braga 43%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
11 May 2024
17:30 Vizela vs Estrela Analysis →
17:30 Portimonense vs Rio Ave Analysis →
20:00 Estoril vs Sporting CP Analysis →