Estoril 0-1 Sporting CP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2024

Estoril
0-1 HT 0-0
Sporting CP
📅11/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estoril vs Sporting CP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
56%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.38
Over 2.5
56%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.99
4-5 Goals
27%
2.68
6+ Goals
13%
6.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
9.35
1/2
6%
20.35
1/X
5%
17.6
X/1
6%
12.85
X/2
20%
3.76
X/X
8%
6.85
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
31%
1.78
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
17.2
Value flag · 2/X at 17.2 — our 10% vs market 3.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+6.3pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.3pp
56%
Away Win
67%
-10.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Sporting CP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 71%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
0.64/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.05/0.80
-61% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 82%
13.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.7
20.1 Crosses 22.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Estoril vs Sporting CP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Sporting CP
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.65 xG 2.38
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
296 Passes 462
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.01.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5-1 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
27.02.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
02.09.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-2 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
20.02.2022 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
19.09.2021 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
01.11.2018 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1-2 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril PORLC

Estoril 0-1 Sporting CP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
0-1
AWAY Sporting CP
0.27 xG 1.44
36% Ball Possession 64%
7 Total Shots 20
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
235 Passes 470
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
7 Box Touches 28
5 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Sporting CP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP edged past Estoril 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estoril had 36% of the ball to Sporting CP's 64%, shots finished 7-20, expected goals 0.27 to 1.44.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Estoril and 2.33 for Sporting CP.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Sporting CP?

Estoril 0-1 Sporting CP in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Sporting CP?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Estoril 21%, draw 23%, Sporting CP 56%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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