Vizela 4-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 May 2024

📅11/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.44
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.46
6+ Goals
10%
13.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 29% vs market 23.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.97
1/2
8%
26.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
17%
6.81
X/2
10%
4.72
X/X
12%
4.46
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.95
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+5.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 50%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-14% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.7 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Estrela
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.97 xG 1.75
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
348 Passes 201
77% Pass Accuracy 67%
18 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2024 Estrela Estrela 1-1 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela POR
24.11.2023 Vizela Vizela 2-1 HT 0-1 Estrela Estrela POK
20.11.2021 Vizela Vizela 2-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POK
24.07.2021 Estrela Estrela 2-1 HT 1-0 Vizela Vizela PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
4-0
AWAY Estrela
2.80 xG 0.73
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
289 Passes 352
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela cruised past Estrela 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vizela had 45% of the ball to Estrela's 55%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 2.80 to 0.73.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Vizela had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vizela and 1.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Estrela?

Vizela 4-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated an Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Vizela 33%, draw 25%, Estrela 41%. The final score 4-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ BTTS Yes
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