UPDF 1-2 Maroons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 15 Oct 2025

UPDF
1-2 HT 0-2
Maroons
📅15/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.04
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.52
Over 2.5
42%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.06
No
58%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
44%
-0.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
27%
+2.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.8pp
42%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.5pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Maroons EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +21% / +21%
1.13/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/0.92
-2% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +58% / +14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
312 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Maroons
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
16.04.2025 UPDF UPDF 2-1 HT 0-1 Maroons Maroons UGA
15.09.2024 Maroons Maroons 1-1 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-2
AWAY Maroons
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Maroons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maroons edged past UPDF 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was UPDF at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UPDF had 54% of the ball to Maroons's 46%, shots finished 10-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, UPDF had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for UPDF and 1.00 for Maroons.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Maroons?

UPDF 1-2 Maroons in the Uganda - Premier League on 15/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Maroons?

Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split UPDF 43%, draw 28%, Maroons 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (UPDF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
UGA More Uganda - Premier League
15 Oct 2025
20:00 SC Villa vs Gaddafi Analysis →