UPDF 2-1 Maroons — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 16 Apr 2025

UPDF
2-1 HT 0-1
Maroons
📅16/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.27
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
35%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
20%
2/1
4%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
40%
-4.7pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.1pp
35%
Away Win
29%
+5.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-5.2pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Maroons EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +45% / +45%
1.12/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.25
+12% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +69% / +150%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Maroons
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
15.09.2024 Maroons Maroons 1-1 HT 0-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Maroons
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF nicked a narrow win over Maroons 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 30% / 35% — and on the day UPDF made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (62%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Maroons?

UPDF 2-1 Maroons in the Uganda - Premier League on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Maroons?

Before kick-off our model rated a UPDF win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split UPDF 35%, draw 30%, Maroons 35%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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