İtalya U21 2-2 Fransa U21 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 15 Nov 2024

İtalya U21
2-2 HT 2-0
Fransa U21
📅15/11/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Friendlies – 2024

İtalya U21 vs Fransa U21 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
33%
3.28
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.91
Over 2.5
40%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.55
2-3 Goals
47%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
12.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.55 — our 24% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.76
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
9%
12.65
X/1
9%
5.75
X/2
5%
5.73
X/X
16%
4.64
2/1
10%
28.5
2/2
21%
3.73
2/X
8%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.4pp
33%
Draw
27%
+5.4pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
48%
+11.5pp
40%
Over 2.5
52%
-11.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İtalya U21 v Fransa U21 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İtalya U21 EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Fransa U21 EU Bookmakers 39%
-42% / -42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +29% / +29%
1.55/3.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/0.44
+7% / -59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
326 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 77%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
21.3 Crosses –
2.4 Yellow Cards –

İtalya U21 vs Fransa U21 Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İtalya U21
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Fransa U21
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.68 xG 0.99
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
328 Passes 359
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.06.2023 Fransa U21 Fransa U21 2-1 HT 1-1 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 Avrupa - UEFA U21 Şampiyonası
29.05.2018 Fransa U21 Fransa U21 1-1 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 HAZ
02.06.2016 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 0-1 HT 0-1 Fransa U21 Fransa U21 HAZ
21.08.2007 İtalya U21 İtalya U21 2-1 HT 2-0 Fransa U21 Fransa U21 HAZ

İtalya U21 2-2 Fransa U21 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İtalya U21
2-2
AWAY Fransa U21
1.66 xG 1.77
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
390 Passes 445
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
26 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH İtalya U21 vs Fransa U21
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya U21 and Fransa U21 couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 33% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İtalya U21 had 47% of the ball to Fransa U21's 53%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.66 to 1.77.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fransa U21 led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for İtalya U21 and 1.25 for Fransa U21.

What was the final score of İtalya U21 vs Fransa U21?

İtalya U21 2-2 Fransa U21 in the Friendlies on 15/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İtalya U21 vs Fransa U21?

Before kick-off our model rated a İtalya U21 win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split İtalya U21 35%, draw 33%, Fransa U21 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (İtalya U21) ✗ Under 2.5
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