Crusaders FC 4-1 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 15 Nov 2025

📅15/11/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
23%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.7
No
43%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
25%
3.29
6+ Goals
12%
12.1
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.29 — our 25% vs market 24.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.83
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.3
X/1
14%
4.85
X/2
8%
7.25
X/X
11%
4.97
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
24.45
2/2
9%
5.24
2/X
5%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 12% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
46%
+7.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
22%
Away Win
28%
-5.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
55%
+2.5pp
43%
BTTS No
45%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -20%
1.82/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.47
+36% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
357 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crusaders FC
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Glenavon FC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 2
6 Corners 3
27.09.2025 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-2 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
22.02.2025 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
17.12.2024 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 3-1 HT 1-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
14.09.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 0-1 HT 0-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
24.02.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
23.12.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Crusaders FC vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crusaders FC swept aside Glenavon FC 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Crusaders FC as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crusaders FC had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Crusaders FC and 0.83 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Crusaders FC vs Glenavon FC?

Crusaders FC 4-1 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 15/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crusaders FC vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crusaders FC win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Crusaders FC 53%, draw 24%, Glenavon FC 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Crusaders FC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Crusaders FC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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KİRL More North Ireland - Premier League
15 Nov 2025
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