Crusaders FC 0-1 Glenavon FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — North Ireland - Premier League, 14 Sep 2024

📅14/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.19
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.36
2-3 Goals
41%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.96
6+ Goals
11%
8.88
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.74
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.65
X/1
18%
3.66
X/2
8%
13.85
X/X
8%
6.5
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.85
2/2
6%
10.6
2/X
8%
18.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
65%
-10.0pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.2pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crusaders FC EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Glenavon FC EU Bookmakers 18%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +2%
2.28/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.16
+2% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -16%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
402 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crusaders FC
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Glenavon FC
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.02.2024 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
23.12.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 1-3 HT 0-1 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
23.09.2023 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 2-0 HT 1-0 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
14.02.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 2-2 HT 0-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
10.01.2023 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 4-2 HT 2-0 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC KİRL
15.10.2022 Crusaders FC Crusaders FC 3-2 HT 1-1 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC KİRL
POST-MATCH Crusaders FC vs Glenavon FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Glenavon FC edged past Crusaders FC 1-0 away from home.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Crusaders FC at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Crusaders FC had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Crusaders FC and 1.50 for Glenavon FC.

What was the final score of Crusaders FC vs Glenavon FC?

Crusaders FC 0-1 Glenavon FC in the North Ireland - Premier League on 14/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crusaders FC vs Glenavon FC?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crusaders FC win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Crusaders FC 55%, draw 23%, Glenavon FC 22%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Crusaders FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KİRL More North Ireland - Premier League
14 Sep 2024
17:00 Loughgall FC vs Cliftonville Analysis →
17:00 Ballymena United vs Glentoran FC Analysis →
17:00 Linfield FC vs Larne FC Analysis →
17:00 Coleraine FC vs Carrick Rangers Analysis →