Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Hoffenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
18%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.73
No
49%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.16
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
27%
2.61
6+ Goals
13%
6.39
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.45
X/1
21%
3.7
X/2
7%
15.7
X/X
11%
7.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
20.45
2/2
6%
11.3
2/X
6%
19.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.45 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
68%
-8.9pp
22%
Draw
18%
+4.3pp
18%
Away Win
14%
+4.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
54%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS No
46%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
2.41/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/2.04
+25% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
439 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 74%
33.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
18.5 Crosses 15.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Hoffenheim
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.92 xG 1.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 6
416 Passes 349
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
32 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-3 HT 2-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
01.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
29.09.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
25.02.2023 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 0-1 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.09.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
22.01.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
1-1
AWAY Hoffenheim
0.50 xG 1.01
54% Ball Possession 46%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 9
376 Passes 290
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 36
14 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund and Hoffenheim shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Borussia Dortmund at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 54% of the ball to Hoffenheim's 46%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.50 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.00 for Hoffenheim.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim?

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Hoffenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Hoffenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 59%, draw 22%, Hoffenheim 18%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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