Heidenheim 1-3 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 15 Dec 2024

Heidenheim
1-3 HT 1-2
Stuttgart
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

Heidenheim vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.75
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
43%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.53
2-3 Goals
37%
1.88
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
11%
7.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.45
1/2
6%
21.15
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1 EV+ ✗
12%
9.37
X/2
16%
4.35
X/X
13%
5.88
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.22
2/X
6%
13.9
Value flag · X/1 at 9.37 — our 12% vs market 7.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
23%
+8.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
43%
Away Win
53%
-10.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.1pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 57%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -35%
1.41/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/1.30
-34% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -33%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 448 · 83%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 33.7
23.3 Crosses 20.5
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.9

Heidenheim vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Stuttgart
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.29 xG 2.96
36% Ball Possession 64%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
217 Passes 525
68% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 31
21 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.03.2024 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-3 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
05.11.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-0 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
29.01.2020 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
04.08.2019 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-2 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2
22.07.2017 Heidenheim Heidenheim 2-1 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart HAZ
17.02.2017 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL2

Heidenheim 1-3 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
1-3
AWAY Stuttgart
0.98 xG 2.38
34% Ball Possession 66%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 6
193 Passes 497
69% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 33
21 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart got the better of Heidenheim 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Stuttgart as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Heidenheim had 34% of the ball to Stuttgart's 66%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.98 to 2.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Heidenheim and 1.83 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Stuttgart?

Heidenheim 1-3 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stuttgart win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 32%, draw 25%, Stuttgart 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stuttgart), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stuttgart) ✓ Over 2.5
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