Hajduk Split 2-2 Rijeka — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.12
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
26%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.48
Over 2.5
32%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.09
No
64%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
39%
2.14
2-3 Goals
47%
1.74
4-5 Goals
9%
5.16
6+ Goals
5%
33.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.14 — our 39% vs market 38.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
6%
X/2
17%
X/X
17%
2/1
17%
2/2
4%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.1pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+1.6pp
68%
Under 2.5
64%
+3.6pp
32%
Over 2.5
36%
-3.6pp
36%
BTTS Yes
44%
-7.7pp
64%
BTTS No
56%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Rijeka EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +3%
1.18/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.31
+7% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +6%
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 71%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
13.7 Crosses 15.6
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hajduk Split
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Rijeka
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.58 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
317 Passes 278
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
29.09.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 0-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
07.04.2024 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
28.01.2024 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-2 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
07.10.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 0-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
30.07.2023 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
16.04.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 1-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hajduk Split
2-2
AWAY Rijeka
0.87 xG 0.87
63% Ball Possession 37%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
398 Passes 203
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Hajduk Split vs Rijeka
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hajduk Split and Rijeka couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Hajduk Split at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hajduk Split had 63% of the ball to Rijeka's 37%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.87 to 0.87.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Hajduk Split and 1.00 for Rijeka.

What was the final score of Hajduk Split vs Rijeka?

Hajduk Split 2-2 Rijeka in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hajduk Split vs Rijeka?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Hajduk Split 44%, draw 30%, Rijeka 26%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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